When I was a kid, my dad ran a metal shop. Out back, he had heaps and heaps of scrap steel. Pieces of machines, broken tractors, metal shavings, odd cuts of steel plate. My dad did this because steel prices are volatile, and if he timed it right, he could clear his scrap inventory and realize large gains.

The price of steel in various markets since the early 2000s

Steel

Steel is one of the basic building blocks of modern civilization. We use steel to build modern residential and commercial space. We use it to create factories. We use it to create car frames, both electric and ICE. We use it to…


I’m working on a membership site where a private Discord channel is part of the required feature set. I wanted to be able to generate a one time invite code for each user. This was surprisingly challenging.

The first step is registering a Discord server…this can be done from within the Discord app.

The second is creating a discord bot, assigning permissions, and adding the bot to the server. DiscordPY had a great step by step guid for this on their docs page: https://discordpy.readthedocs.io/en/latest/discord.html

Finally, I used discord.js to create a single method call for this interaction:

const Discord =…


At one point it was very important. And I think it will be again.

DHT Leopard — VLCC tanker

IMO2020, for those who don’t know, was a limit in the sulphur content of marine fuel. The regulations reduced allowable sulphur content by ~85%. That might not seem like a big deal but it has a big impact on refinery economics. Ships burn residual fuel, meaning what’s left at the bottom of the barrel after the refinery has made gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc. For a refinery to make optimal profits they need to be able to sell the stuff left over. The problem is that…


Last year everyone was waiting for a big moment in the oil and fuel markets: #IMO2020, a seemingly small change around the type of fuel ships burned. In summary, the sulphur content of ship fuel, which is a residual fuel from refining operations, was being reduced by more than 80%. Crude oil is mostly categorized based on how “sour” it is, or how much sulphur it has, and how “heavy” it is, in other words how dense (non viscous) it is. Those two qualities, density and sulphur content, drive the entire refining supply chain. …


How would you like to receive $1,000 just for being over 18 and existing, no strings attached? That’s the cornerstone of Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang’s campaign, and it’s receiving wide support across the political spectrum, but especially among Yang’s liberal technocrat base. Yang argues that due to an assault on the common man by computers and Wall Street, the only way to “save” America is by giving everyone money every month for no reason at all.

There is a lot of truth in what Andrew Yang says. Truck driver, retail, and call center operator jobs are being threatened by…


Disclosures and statements: I am long Teekay Tankers, Euronav, DHT, PBF Energy, and a basket of other crude shipping stocks. This article represents my opinions about the market and is not investment advice. If you notice any factual issues, please write me: calvinfroedge@gmail.com or message me on Twitter @calvinfroedge

Perhaps you’ve heard of the new #IMO2020 regulations which went into effect on January 1st. These regulations limit the sulphur content of “bunker fuel,” which is what, until December 31st 2019, most ships on the planet burned for propulsion. Most of this fuel was produced as a byproduct of refiners processing…


If you’ve been following the maritime industry’s #IMO2020 fuel transition to lower sulphur fuels, you know that some vessels who have installed “scrubbers” can still burn high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), while others have to burn low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) or Marine Gas Oil (MGO), fuels which are much more expensive. As you can see from the chart below, the price differential between low and high sulphur fuels is hovering near 80%. Given that fuel is the largest cost of operating a large ship, this is a big deal.

This has caused some confusion among industry participants as to…


Last December I started building a small community for tech people in beautiful, tax friendly western Panama. The pitch was that you could come live in and explore Panama, get your tax residency, and hang out with others. The property focuses on infrastructure first in a gorgeous setting with fantastic weather. The quaint nearby town is small, but bustling and diverse.

To date I have hosted more than 20 software developers from nearly a dozen countries. I have made many new friends and had some fun adventures! …


ESG is an acronym for “Environmental”, “social” and “corporate governance”, the three central factors in measuring the sustainability and ethical impact of an investment in a company or business. It basically means, invest in things that make the world a better place, or putting overall value creation above short term profit.

With the environmental challenges we face, socially responsible investing has certainly come to the forefront of investor mindsets. With the number of actively managed investments (selective valuation and selection of companies versus passive funds that buy and sell indiscriminately) continuing to decline, “Divest Harvard” continuing to demand the endowment…


The greatest hope for reducing emissions without sacrificing our civilization

This is a follow up to my previous post on #IMO2020, an environmental protection regulation change that sets new standards around the type of fuel that merchant ships burn. My initial reaction was, wow, this is going to be total chaos. Supply chains are going to be disrupted. There could be fuel shortages and all kinds of madness. Regulators don’t fully understand it. No one knows what will happen. Anxiety. Uncertainty. Risk. That’s all still true. It’s a gigantic cluster fuck.

We have modeled a wide variety of scenarios and can imagine a disruption lasting anywhere from one year to…

Calvin Froedge

Software developer, investor, energy markets analyst.

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